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Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 5 March 2018

BULLION

Gold futures rose over one percent in American trade away from December 29 lows as the dollar index fell from January 18 highs for the second session following earlier data from the US the world's largest economy.Oneyear inflation outlook steadied at 2.7% while fiveyear outlook steadied as well at 2.5%.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified on the Semi annual Monetary Policy Report before Congress in Washington DC earlier this week where he painted a positive picture of the economy and bolstered expectations of four rate hikes this year.


ENERGY

On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks showing a build up of 3.0 million barrels in the week ending February 23 compared to a 1.6M drop in the previous reading while analysts expected a 2.4M rise with total stocks now reaching 423.5 million barrels remaining within the medium range on average in this time of year.

Natural gas futures rose over one percent to February 8 highs in American trade as the dollar index bounced off January18 highsfollowing earlier data from the US the world'slargestenergy consumer including the EIA report that showed a largerthanexpected inventory draw down for the eleventh week in a row.


Base Metals

Base metals traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were broadly weaker during Asian morning trading on Friday March 2, with only copper and aluminium prices managing to post slight gains.Weakness continued across the SHFE base metals complex this morning with the relatively stronger dollar and thin liquidity restricting the metals.

SPICES

Even as overall fundamentals still did not remain strong from new crop arrivals amidst better crop expectations traders expect that incoming festival season along with firm Dollar could support export demand and support prices. Recent reports of apprehensions of crop damage in parts of Gujarat from climatic fluctuations may not be strong to support prices for now as overall production is expected to be higher this year.

Turmeric Markets talks suggest that a significant drop in sowing in regions across Erode due to a drought like situation last year. As per trader estimates production is expected to fall to 1-3 lakh bags from the normal 15-20 lakh bags seen on an average.



OILSEEDS

Hike in import duty in November keeps prices supported and as per the notifications import duty on crude palm oil has been raised to 30 per cent from 15 per cent and on refined oil to 40 per cent from 20 per cent in a bidBULLION

Gold futures rose over one percent in American trade away from December 29 lows as the dollar index fell from January 18 highs for the second session following earlier data from the US the world's largest economy.Oneyear inflation outlook steadied at 2.7% while fiveyear outlook steadied as well at 2.5%.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified on the Semi annual Monetary Policy Report before Congress in Washington DC earlier this week where he painted a positive picture of the economy and bolstered expectations of four rate hikes this year.


ENERGY

On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks showing a build up of 3.0 million barrels in the week ending February 23 compared to a 1.6M drop in the previous reading while analysts expected a 2.4M rise with total stocks now reaching 423.5 million barrels remaining within the medium range on average in this time of year.

Natural gas futures rose over one percent to February 8 highs in American trade as the dollar index bounced off January18 highsfollowing earlier data from the US the world'slargestenergy consumer including the EIA report that showed a largerthanexpected inventory draw down for the eleventh week in a row.


Base Metals

Base metals traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were broadly weaker during Asian morning trading on Friday March 2, with only copper and aluminium prices managing to post slight gains.Weakness continued across the SHFE base metals complex this morning with the relatively stronger dollar and thin liquidity restricting the metals.

SPICES

Even as overall fundamentals still did not remain strong from new crop arrivals amidst better crop expectations traders expect that incoming festival season along with firm Dollar could support export demand and support prices. Recent reports of apprehensions of crop damage in parts of Gujarat from climatic fluctuations may not be strong to support prices for now as overall production is expected to be higher this year.

Turmeric Markets talks suggest that a significant drop in sowing in regions across Erode due to a drought like situation last year. As per trader estimates production is expected to fall to 1-3 lakh bags from the normal 15-20 lakh bags seen on an average.


OILSEEDS

Hike in import duty in November keeps prices supported and as per the notifications import duty on crude palm oil has been raised to 30 per cent from 15 per cent and on refined oil to 40 per cent from 20 per cent in a bid to reduce cheaper shipments and enhance local prices for supporting farmers and refiners.

Near term trend might be weak as long as export sales do not improve although the medium term outlook is bullish Menthaoil considering fall in crop size and carry forward stocks nearly halving, over last year. Prospects of improving industrial demand and lower production has strongly supported the market in recent months.


GUAR COMPLEX

Guarseed is facing strong resistance at 5000 as Gum trades near 10000 mark. Medium term trend remains up due to rising concerns on production front from crop losses in Rajasthan due to adverse weather few months back. Lowering inventories will be another bullish factor. Increased exports of guar gum during last year have been encouraging due to increasing rig count in the US.

Others

The Cotton Association of India has in its latest estimate lowered the crop size by 8 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) to 367 lakh bales against earlier estimate of 375 lakh bales citing severe infestation of cotton with pink boll worm in Maharashtra and Telangana.

RM seed traded with a positive bias yesterday as new arrivals stood quite low and spot demand improved ahead of Holi festival. From a 1-2 month perspective traders expect maximum fall of Rs.150-250/qtl.



Dhaniya

Dhaniya prices opened flat in the last week and thereafter consolidated for the whole week in the range of 5580-5480 levels. Market is continuously making higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish trend from short term to mid term basis. Prices are expected to go high above the level of 5580. On the lower side immediate support is placed around 5450level.

CASTOR SEED

NCDEX Castor mar future continued to trade with negative bias for the third consecutive trading week. Price made the low of 4046 during the week and the high of 4223 and settled at 4098. Price declined by 100 points during the week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of short positions. We can see pressure on prices from higher level. And we are expecting market can be traded with negative trend.




GBPINR

Last week GBPINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 91.4800 but till the end of the week, all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 89.9150 with the overall loss of 0.83% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect downside movement in it as sustaining below trend line breakout with negative RSI. If it breaks the level of 89.8600 then it can test the level of 89.2625 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 90.2250




USDINR

Last week USDINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note & continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 65.5000 during the week and closed at 65.7350 with the overall gain of 0.99% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect profit booking in it from the higher levels & below the level of 65.1000, it can test the level of 64.5125 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 65.5125



SILVER

Last week USDINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note &found enough resistance at the level of 39250 and closed the week with negative return. It made a high of 39283 during the week and closed at 38848 with the overall lost of -0.24% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect buy from higher level &above the level of 639070, it can test the level of 39600 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 38850



NICKEL

Last week, Nickel prices opened flat and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 870. Previously prices have rallied negative in the last month after taking strong resistance at its short term downward trend line. Daily RSI (14) has given a negative signal. Prices are expected to go lower from these levels towards next strong support zone placed around 830



Near term trend might be weak as long as export sales do not improve although the medium term outlook is bullish Menthaoil considering fall in crop size and carry forward stocks nearly halving, over last year. Prospects of improving industrial demand and lower production has strongly supported the market in recent months.


GUAR COMPLEX

Guarseed is facing strong resistance at 5000 as Gum trades near 10000 mark. Medium term trend remains up due to rising concerns on production front from crop losses in Rajasthan due to adverse weather few months back. Lowering inventories will be another bullish factor. Increased exports of guar gum during last year have been encouraging due to increasing rig count in the US.

Others

The Cotton Association of India has in its latest estimate lowered the crop size by 8 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) to 367 lakh bales against earlier estimate of 375 lakh bales citing severe infestation of cotton with pink boll worm in Maharashtra and Telangana.

RM seed traded with a positive bias yesterday as new arrivals stood quite low and spot demand improved ahead of Holi festival. From a 1-2 month perspective traders expect maximum fall of Rs.150-250/qtl.






Dhaniya

Dhaniya prices opened flat in the last week and thereafter consolidated for the whole week in the range of 5580-5480 levels. Market is continuously making higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish trend from short term to mid term basis. Prices are expected to go high above the level of 5580. On the lower side immediate support is placed around 5450level.


CASTOR SEED

NCDEX Castor mar future continued to trade with negative bias for the third consecutive trading week. Price made the low of 4046 during the week and the high of 4223 and settled at 4098. Price declined by 100 points during the week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of short positions. We can see pressure on prices from higher level. And we are expecting market can be traded with negative trend


GBPINR

Last week GBPINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 91.4800 but till the end of the week, all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 89.9150 with the overall loss of 0.83% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect downside movement in it as sustaining below trend line breakout with negative RSI. If it breaks the level of 89.8600 then it can test the level of 89.2625 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 90.2250


USDINR

Last week USDINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note & continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 65.5000 during the week and closed at 65.7350 with the overall gain of 0.99% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect profit booking in it from the higher levels & below the level of 65.1000, it can test the level of 64.5125 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 65.5125



SILVER

Last week USDINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note &found enough resistance at the level of 39250 and closed the week with negative return. It made a high of 39283 during the week and closed at 38848 with the overall lost of -0.24% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect buy from higher level &above the level of 639070, it can test the level of 39600 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 38850


NICKEL

Last week, Nickel prices opened flat and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 870. Previously prices have rallied negative in the last month after taking strong resistance at its short term downward trend line. Daily RSI (14) has given a negative signal. Prices are expected to go lower from these levels towards next strong support zone placed around 830


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